Pressure by progressive lawmakers, particularly in blue cities, to restrict police traffic stops as a means for addressing racial discrimination has been quite effective. Traffic stops nationally dropped significantly during the 2020 Covid 19 lockdowns, and have stayed down in the post-pandemic years, especially in democrat run cities including Philadelphia, Memphis, Milwaukee, Chicago, Phoenix and Seattle. Emily Badger and Ben Blatt of the New York Times report that the reduction in traffic enforcement spread nationally after the widely publicized 2014 shooting of Michael Brown in Ferguson, Missouri. The writers attribute the decline in stops to two sources, changes in department policy and decisions by officers on the street.
The policy changes were politically motivated by progressives, with support by the media, in labeling police as racists who selectively stop vehicles with black drivers for failing to signal for a turn or missing a license plate. Decisions by officers to avoid stopping a vehicle for these types of violations were symptoms of what Manhattan Institute scholar Heather MacDonald called the “Ferguson effect,”
“Why subject yourself to potential discipline or problems?” said Tom Saggau, spokesperson for the Los Angeles Police Protective League union. “Why subject yourself to the inherent danger of engaging? Many times, officers are questioning: ‘Why am I even doing this?’”
After the George Floyd riots many larger police departments placed further restrictions on pretextual stops. Los Angeles required officers to write down the reasons for stopping a vehicle and the race of the driver. Philadelphia prohibited stops for violations including driving with a single broken brake light or headlight, bumper issues, driving without inspection or emissions stickers, and having a license plate that’s not properly fastened. Another contributor has been the decline of officers, especially in large cities. With the President of the United States, the local city council and the national media calling police officers racists with some even encouraging physical resistance to arrest, it is no surprise that many officers took early retirement or quit the force, while few young people are interested in replacing them. In many departments with officer shortages, traffic enforcement is the first place where cuts are made.
Accompanying the reduction in traffic enforcement has been a significant increase in traffic fatalities. Since the Ferguson riots data from the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration and an estimate for 2023 by the National Safety Council put the increase in traffic fatalities at 32%, amounting to over 12,500 additional deaths.
It is difficult to determine how many serious and violent criminals have avoided detection and arrest due to the restrictions on traffic stops but it is undoubtedly substantial.
Have these policies reduced racial disparities? No. While traffic stops and arrests for all crimes have gone down in progressive cities, the proportion of blacks arrested for crimes has not changed. There are just more criminals left on the streets and more victims, many of whom are black.
